TL;DR: In March 2026, dollar liquidity held by Cambodian commercial banks at the National Bank of Cambodia fell to a record low of 10.4% of total dollar deposits, according to AMRO analysts. The cause: banks have shifted roughly $10.5 billion into foreign assets. With 83% of Cambodia's money supply denominated in USD and no deposit insurance scheme in place, this creates a structural vulnerability that real estate investors need to understand.

Cambodia's Dollar Liquidity Crisis: What the AMRO Warning Means for Property Investors

Data current as of June 2026. Source: AMRO report, Cambodia Investment Review.

What Has Actually Happened to Dollar Liquidity in Cambodian Banks?

The ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) has flagged a significant deterioration in Cambodia's banking system liquidity buffers. As of March 2026, immediately available dollar liquidity held by commercial banks at the National Bank of Cambodia (NBC) has dropped to 10.4% of total dollar deposits — down from 12% at end-2025 and the lowest reading ever recorded under AMRO's analytical framework.

This is not a solvency crisis. Cambodian banks are not running out of money. The issue is more nuanced — and in some ways more difficult to manage: the money exists, but it is increasingly held outside Cambodia.

Where Did $10.5 Billion Go? The Foreign Asset Shift

Between 2024 and 2025, Cambodian banks increased their net foreign assets by approximately $10.5 billion — roughly three times the growth in Cambodia's official foreign exchange reserves over the same period.

Banks have been simultaneously growing foreign assets and reducing foreign liabilities, resulting in a substantial net outflow of dollar liquidity from the domestic system.

Why are banks doing this? AMRO identifies the strategy as commercially rational: - Domestic credit demand has slowed. - Internal credit risk has risen, particularly in real estate. - Short-term offshore deposits and trade settlement accounts offer better risk-adjusted yields.

Market participants cited in the report suggest that much of the offshore capital is held in liquid, short-term instruments that could theoretically be repatriated quickly. The operative word is "theoretically" — stress scenarios rarely unfold on a convenient timeline.

Why Dollarization Turns This Into a Structural Risk

Cambodia is one of the most highly dollarized economies in the world. At end-2025, 83.4% of broad money supply (M2) was denominated in US dollars.

This creates a fundamental constraint for the NBC: it cannot print dollars. Unlike most central banks, which can extend emergency liquidity in domestic currency during a crisis, the NBC has no equivalent tool for the currency that makes up the vast majority of the financial system.

Compounding factors: - No formal deposit insurance scheme exists in Cambodia. - The domestic interbank lending market remains shallow. - The dollar FX swap market is underdeveloped.

In this environment, depositor confidence is the system's most fragile variable — and it is precisely the variable most sensitive to negative headlines.

Rising NPLs: An Additional Pressure Point for Real Estate

AMRO separately flags the rise in non-performing loans (NPLs) as a contributing risk factor. The linkage to liquidity is indirect but real:

  1. Deteriorating loan quality → reduced bank cash flows.
  2. Lower cash flows → thinner liquidity cushions.
  3. Weaker published metrics → potential loss of depositor confidence.
  4. Deposit outflows in a highly dollarized system without insurance → rapid buffer depletion.

For property investors, this chain matters because real estate has been a significant driver of NPL growth in Cambodia. Developers, construction-linked businesses, and mortgage portfolios have all faced stress — and the feedback loop between property market weakness and banking system liquidity is tighter here than in most markets.

What AMRO Recommends — and What It Signals for the Market

AMRO has outlined a set of policy measures aimed at strengthening resilience:

Measure Purpose
Deepen domestic interbank lending market Enable internal liquidity redistribution
Expand dollar FX swap facilities Give NBC an indirect liquidity tool
Partial repatriation of foreign assets Rebuild domestic buffers

The key analytical finding: if banks redirected just one quarter of their net foreign assets back into domestic liquidity buffers, system coverage ratios would improve significantly — without requiring banks to fully exit their international positions.

This is an important signal. The problem is structurally manageable. But until policy action materialises, investors are operating in a system running on thinner margins than it was two years ago.

Practical Implications for Property Buyers and Investors

What to factor into your Cambodia property strategy in 2026:

  • If financing through a local bank, assess that institution's individual liquidity position and asset allocation policy — not just the headline sector data.
  • Banks with more conservative balance sheet management and transparent reporting carry lower systemic risk.
  • Structures that minimise dependence on local dollar financing — direct purchases, international escrow arrangements, offshore financing — reduce exposure to domestic banking system stress.
  • Monitor NBC and AMRO communications. Regulators are visibly engaged, which meaningfully lowers the probability of an unmanaged crisis.

Cambodia's property market continues to offer competitive entry prices and rental yields by regional standards. The underlying investment case remains intact. But the financial infrastructure context in 2026 demands more careful due diligence on the banking and financing side of any transaction.

FAQ

Q: Does the drop in dollar liquidity mean Cambodian banks are at risk of collapse? A: No — AMRO explicitly states this is not a capital adequacy issue. Banks are solvent. The concern is the reduced buffer of immediately available dollar liquidity within Cambodia's borders. A crisis scenario would require simultaneous deposit outflows and an inability to quickly repatriate offshore assets — a combination that is possible but not the base case.

Q: Is it safe to buy property in Cambodia in 2026 given these risks? A: Cambodia's property market is functioning normally and transactions are proceeding. The AMRO warning is a systemic monitoring flag, not a market shutdown signal. Investors should focus on the financing structure of their deal and the financial health of their banking partners rather than avoiding the market entirely.

Q: What is AMRO and why does its analysis matter? A: AMRO is the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office, an independent regional surveillance body established by ASEAN nations plus China, Japan, and South Korea. Its reports are used by central banks and the IMF as authoritative regional assessments. An AMRO warning carries institutional weight.

Q: How does 83% dollarization compare internationally? A: Cambodia is among the top five most dollarized economies globally. For context, even highly dollarized economies like Ecuador or Zimbabwe typically sit in the 70-85% range. Most developed economies have near-zero dollarization. The implication is that NBC operates with far less monetary policy flexibility than peer central banks.

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